A Mathematical Model for the Impact of 3HP and Social Programme Implementation on the Incidence and Mortality of Tuberculosis: Study in Brazil.

In this paper, we presented a mathematical model for tuberculosis with treatment for latent tuberculosis cases and incorporated social implementations based on the impact they will have on tuberculosis incidence, cure, and recovery. We incorporated two variables containing the accumulated deaths and active cases into the model in order to study the incidence and mortality rate per year with the data reported by the model. Our objective is to study the impact of social program implementations and therapies on latent tuberculosis in particular the use of once-weekly isoniazid-rifapentine for 12 weeks (3HP). The computational experimentation was performed with data from Brazil and for model calibration, we used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) with a Bayesian approach. We studied the effect of increasing the coverage of social programs, the Bolsa Familia Programme (BFP) and the Family Health Strategy (FHS) and the implementation of the 3HP as a substitution therapy for two rates of diagnosis and treatment of latent at 1% and 5%. Based of the data obtained by the model in the period 2023-2035, the FHS reported better results than BFP in the case of social implementations and 3HP with a higher rate of diagnosis and treatment of latent in the reduction of incidence and mortality rate and in cases and deaths avoided. With the objective of linking the social and biomedical implementations, we constructed two different scenarios with the rate of diagnosis and treatment. We verified with results reported by the model that with the social implementations studied and the 3HP with the highest rate of diagnosis and treatment of latent, the best results were obtained in comparison with the other independent and joint implementations. A reduction of the incidence by 36.54% with respect to the model with the current strategies and coverage was achieved, and a greater number of cases and deaths from tuberculosis was avoided.

Quantifying gaps in the tuberculosis care cascade in Brazil: A mathematical model study using national program data.

BACKGROUND: In Brazil, many individuals with tuberculosis (TB) do not receive appropriate care due to delayed or missed diagnosis, ineffective treatment regimens, or loss-to-follow-up. This study aimed to estimate the health losses and TB program costs attributable to each gap in the care cascade for TB disease in Brazil. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We constructed a Markov model simulating the TB care cascade and lifetime health outcomes (e.g., death, cure, postinfectious sequelae) for individuals developing TB disease in Brazil. We stratified the model by age, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, drug resistance, state of residence, and disease severity, and developed a parallel model for individuals without TB that receive a false-positive TB diagnosis. Models were fit to data (adult and pediatric) from Brazil's Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) and Mortality Information System (SIM) for 2018. Using these models, we assessed current program performance and simulated hypothetical scenarios that eliminated specific gaps in the care cascade, in order to quantify incremental health losses and TB diagnosis and treatment costs along the care cascade. TB-attributable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated by comparing changes in survival and nonfatal disability to a no-TB counterfactual scenario. We estimated that 90.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 85.2 to 93.4) of individuals with TB disease initiated treatment and 10.0% (95% UI: 7.6 to 12.5) died with TB. The average number of TB-attributable DALYs per incident TB case varied across Brazil, ranging from 2.9 (95% UI: 2.3 to 3.6) DALYs in Acre to 4.0 (95% UI: 3.3 to 4.7) DALYs in Rio Grande do Sul (national average 3.5 [95% UI: 2.8 to 4.1]). Delayed diagnosis contributed the largest health losses along the care cascade, followed by post-TB sequelae and loss to follow up from TB treatment, with TB DALYs reduced by 71% (95% UI: 65 to 76), 41% (95% UI: 36 to 49), and 10% (95% UI: 7 to 16), respectively, when these factors were eliminated. Total health system costs were largely unaffected by improvements in the care cascade, with elimination of treatment failure reducing attributable costs by 3.1% (95% UI: 1.5 to 5.4). TB diagnosis and treatment of false-positive individuals accounted for 10.2% (95% UI: 3.9 to 21.7) of total programmatic costs but contributed minimally to health losses. Several assumptions were required to interpret programmatic data for the analysis, and we were unable to estimate the contribution of social factors to care cascade outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that delays to diagnosis, post-disease sequelae and treatment loss to follow-up were primary contributors to the TB burden of disease in Brazil. Reducing delays to diagnosis, improving healthcare after TB cure, and reducing treatment loss to follow-up should be prioritized to improve the burden of TB disease in Brazil.

Incidence and risk factors of tuberculosis among 420 854 household contacts of patients with tuberculosis in the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort (2004-18): a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although household contacts of patients with tuberculosis are known to be particularly vulnerable to tuberculosis, the published evidence focused on this group at high risk within the low-income and middle-income country context remains sparse. Using nationwide data from Brazil, we aimed to estimate the incidence and investigate the socioeconomic and clinical determinants of tuberculosis in a cohort of contacts of tuberculosis patients. METHODS: In this cohort study, we linked individual socioeconomic and demographic data from the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort to mortality data and tuberculosis registries, identified contacts of tuberculosis index patients diagnosed from Jan 1, 2004 to Dec 31, 2018, and followed up the contacts until the contact's subsequent tuberculosis diagnosis, the contact's death, or Dec 31, 2018. We investigated factors associated with active tuberculosis using multilevel Poisson regressions, allowing for municipality-level and household-level random effects. FINDINGS: We studied 420 854 household contacts of 137 131 tuberculosis index patients. During the 15 years of follow-up (median 4·4 years [IQR 1·9-7·6]), we detected 8953 contacts with tuberculosis. The tuberculosis incidence among contacts was 427·8 per 100 000 person-years at risk (95% CI 419·1-436·8), 16-times higher than the incidence in the general population (26·2 [26·1-26·3]) and the risk was prolonged. Tuberculosis incidence was associated with the index patient being preschool aged (<5 years; adjusted risk ratio 4·15 [95% CI 3·26-5·28]) or having pulmonary tuberculosis (2·84 [2·55-3·17]). INTERPRETATION: The high and sustained risk of tuberculosis among contacts reinforces the need to systematically expand and strengthen contact tracing and preventive treatment policies in Brazil in order to achieve national and international targets for tuberculosis elimination. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust and Brazilian Ministry of Health.

The economic burden of households affected by tuberculosis in Brazil: First national survey results, 2019-2021.

BACKGROUND: One of the three main targets of the World Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy (2015-2035) is that no tuberculosis (TB) patients or their households face catastrophic costs (defined as exceeding 20% of the annual household income) because of the disease. Our study seeks to determine, as a baseline, the magnitude and main drivers of the costs associated with TB disease for patients and their households and to monitor the proportion of households experiencing catastrophic costs in Brazil. METHODS: A national cross-sectional cluster-based survey was conducted in Brazil in 2019-2021 following WHO methodology. TB patients of all ages and types of TB were eligible for the survey. Adult TB patients and guardians of minors (<18 years old) were interviewed once about costs, time loss, coping measures, income, household expenses, and asset ownership. Total costs, including indirect costs measured as reported household income change, were expressed as a percentage of annual household income. We used descriptive statistics to analyze the cost drivers and multivariate logistic regression to determine factors associated with catastrophic costs. RESULTS: We interviewed 603 patients, including 538 (89%) with drug-sensitive (DS) and 65 (11%) with drug-resistant (DR) TB. Of 603 affected households, 48.1% (95%CI: 43-53.2) experienced costs above 20% of their annual household income during their TB episode. The proportion was 44.4% and 78.5% among patients with DS- and DR-TB, respectively. On average, patients incurred costs of US$1573 (95%CI: 1361.8-1785.0) per TB episode, including pre-diagnosis and post-diagnosis expenses. Key cost drivers were post-diagnosis nutritional supplements (US$317.6, 95%CI: 232.7-402.6) followed by medical costs (US$85.5, 95%CI: 54.3-116.5) and costs of travel for clinic visits during treatment (US$79.2, 95%CI: 61.9-96.5). In multivariate analysis, predictors of catastrophic costs included positive HIV status (aOR = 3.0, 95%CI:1.1-8.6) and self-employment (aOR = 2.7, 95%CI:1.1-6.5); high education was a protective factor (aOR = 0.1, 95%CI:0.0-0.9). CONCLUSIONS: Although the services offered to patients with TB are free of charge in the Brazilian public health sector, the availability of free diagnosis and treatment services does not alleviate patients' financial burden related to accessing TB care. The study allowed us to identify the costs incurred by patients and suggest actions to mitigate their suffering. In addition, this study established a baseline for monitoring catastrophic costs and fostering a national policy to reduce the costs to patients for TB care in Brazil.

Subsidised housing and diabetes mortality: a retrospective cohort study of 10 million low-income adults in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: Housing-related factors can be predictors of health, including of diabetes outcomes. We analysed the association between subsidised housing residency and diabetes mortality among a large cohort of low-income adults in Brazil. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A cohort of 9 961 271 low-income adults, observed from January 2010 to December 2015, was created from Brazilian administrative records of social programmes and death certificates. We analysed the association between subsidised housing residency and time to diabetes mortality using a Cox model with inverse probability of treatment weighting and regression adjustment. We assessed inequalities in this association by groups of municipality Human Development Index. Diabetes mortality included diabetes both as the underlying or a contributory cause of death. RESULTS: At baseline, the mean age of the cohort was 40.3 years (SD 15.6 years), with a majority of women (58.4%). During 29 238 920 person-years of follow-up, there were 18 775 deaths with diabetes as the underlying or a contributory cause. 340 683 participants (3.4% of the cohort) received subsidised housing. Subsidised housing residents had a higher hazard of diabetes mortality compared with non-residents (HR 1.17; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.31). The magnitude of this association was more pronounced among participants living in municipalities with lower Human Development Index (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.62). CONCLUSIONS: Subsidised housing residents had a greater risk of diabetes mortality, particularly those living in low socioeconomic status municipalities. This finding suggests the need to intensify diabetes prevention and control actions and prompt treatment of the diabetes complications among subsidised housing residents, particularly among those living in low socioeconomic status municipalities.

Antibiotic resistance and consumption before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Valle del Cauca, Colombia.

Objective: To assess changes in antibiotic resistance of eight of the World Health Organization priority bug-drug combinations and consumption of six antibiotics (ceftriaxone, cefepime, piperacillin/tazobactam, meropenem, ciprofloxacin, vancomycin) before (March 2018 to July 2019) and during (March 2020 to July 2021) the COVID-19 pandemic in 31 hospitals in Valle del Cauca, Colombia. Methods: This was a before/after study using routinely collected data. For antibiotic consumption, daily defined doses (DDD) per 100 bed-days were compared. Results: There were 23 405 priority bacterial isolates with data on antibiotic resistance. The total number of isolates increased from 9 774 to 13 631 in the periods before and during the pandemic, respectively. While resistance significantly decreased for four selected bug-drug combinations (Klebsiella pneumoniae, extended spectrum beta lactamase [ESBL]-producing, 32% to 24%; K. pneumoniae, carbapenem-resistant, 4% to 2%; Pseudomonas aeruginosa, carbapenem-resistant, 12% to 8%; Acinetobacter baumannii, carbapenem-resistant, 23% to 9%), the level of resistance for Enterococcus faecium to vancomycin significantly increased (42% to 57%). There was no change in resistance for the remaining three combinations (Staphylococcus aureus, methicillin-resistant; Escherichia coli, ESBL-producing; E. coli, carbapenem-resistant). Consumption of all antibiotics increased. However, meropenem consumption decreased in intensive care unit settings (8.2 to 7.1 DDD per 100 bed-days). Conclusions: While the consumption of antibiotics increased, a decrease in antibiotic resistance of four bug-drug combinations was observed during the pandemic. This was possibly due to an increase in community-acquired infections. Increasing resistance of E. faecium to vancomycin must be monitored. The findings of this study are essential to inform stewardship programs in hospital settings of Colombia and similar contexts elsewhere.

Adherence to guidelines on the use of amoxicillin for treatment of ambulatory pneumonia in children younger than 5 years, Colombia, 2017-2019.

Objectives: To determine the level of adherence to clinical guidelines in prescribing amoxicillin to children younger than 5 years with pneumonia in outpatient settings in Colombia from 2017 to 2019, and assess the factors associated with adherence. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study of secondary data from the Colombian Integrated Social Protection Information System database. Adherence was defined as prescription of oral amoxicillin for bacterial and unspecified pneumonia and non-prescription for viral pneumonia. Variables examined included: age (< 1 year, 1-4 years) of child; sex; cause of pneumonia (bacterial, viral, unspecified); region (Andean, Amazonian, Pacific, Caribbean, Insular, Orinoquian); and payment mechanism (without prior authorization, capitation, direct payment, pay per case, pay for event). Results: Of 215 925 cases of community-acquired pneumonia reported during 2017-2019, 64.8% were from the Andean region, 73.9% were bacterial pneumonia and 1.8% were viral pneumonia. Adherence to guidelines was observed in 5.8% of cases: this was highest for children diagnosed with viral (86.0%) compared with bacterial (2.0%) pneumonia. For children diagnosed with bacterial pneumonia, 9.4% were prescribed any antibiotic. A greater proportion of children covered by capitated payments (22.3%) were given treatment consistent with the guidelines compared with payment for event (1.3%). Conclusion: In this first study from Colombia, adherence to guidelines for outpatient treatment of children with bacterial pneumonia was low and was better for viral pneumonia. Further qualitative studies are needed to explore the reasons for this lack of adherence and why bacterial pneumonia was the most commonly reported etiology.

Adherence to guidelines on the use of amoxicillin for treatment of ambulatory pneumonia in children younger than 5 years, Colombia, 2017–2019

[ABSTRACT]. Objectives. To determine the level of adherence to clinical guidelines in prescribing amoxicillin to children younger than 5 years with pneumonia in outpatient settings in Colombia from 2017 to 2019, and assess the factors associated with adherence Methods. This was a cross-sectional study of secondary data from the Colombian Integrated Social Protec- tion Information System database. Adherence was defined as prescription of oral amoxicillin for bacterial and unspecified pneumonia and non-prescription for viral pneumonia. Variables examined included: age (< 1 year, 1–4 years) of child; sex; cause of pneumonia (bacterial, viral, unspecified); region (Andean, Amazonian, Pacific, Caribbean, Insular, Orinoquian); and payment mechanism (without prior authorization, capitation, dir- ect payment, pay per case, pay for event). Results. Of 215 925 cases of community-acquired pneumonia reported during 2017–2019, 64.8% were from the Andean region, 73.9% were bacterial pneumonia and 1.8% were viral pneumonia. Adherence to guide- lines was observed in 5.8% of cases: this was highest for children diagnosed with viral (86.0%) compared with bacterial (2.0%) pneumonia. For children diagnosed with bacterial pneumonia, 9.4% were prescribed any antibiotic. A greater proportion of children covered by capitated payments (22.3%) were given treatment consistent with the guidelines compared with payment for event (1.3%). Conclusion. In this first study from Colombia, adherence to guidelines for outpatient treatment of children with bacterial pneumonia was low and was better for viral pneumonia. Further qualitative studies are needed to explore the reasons for this lack of adherence and why bacterial pneumonia was the most commonly reported etiology.

[RESUMEN]. Objetivos. Determinar el nivel de adherencia a las directrices clínicas al momento de prescribir amoxicilina a menores de 5 años con neumonía en entornos de atención ambulatoria en Colombia entre el 2017 y el 2019, así como evaluar los factores asociados con la adherencia. Métodos. Este fue un estudio transversal de datos secundarios de la base de datos del Sistema Integral de Información de la Protección Social de Colombia. La adherencia se definió como la prescripción de amox- icilina por vía oral para las neumonías bacterianas y no especificadas, y la ausencia de prescripción para las neumonías virales. Las variables examinadas incluyeron: edad (< 1 año, 1 a 4 años); sexo; causa de la neumonía (bacteriana, viral, no especificada); región (andina, amazónica, Pacífico, Caribe, insular, Orinoco); y mecanismo de pago (sin autorización previa, capitación, pago directo, pago por caso, pago por evento). Resultados. De 215 925 casos de neumonía adquirida en la comunidad notificados durante el período 2017- 2019, el 64,8% correspondieron a la región andina, el 73,9% a neumonía bacteriana y el 1,8% a neumonía viral. Se observó la adherencia a las directrices en el 5,8% de los casos: esta cifra fue más alta para la población infantil diagnosticada con neumonía viral (86,0%) que para la diagnosticada con neumonía bacte- riana (2,0%). En el caso de la población infantil diagnosticada con neumonía bacteriana, al 9,4% se le recetó algún antibiótico. La proporción de población infantil cubierta por pagos capitados (22,3%) que recibió un tratamiento en consonancia con las directrices fue mayor que la de la población cubierta por pagos por evento (1,3%). Conclusión. En este primer estudio de Colombia, la adherencia a las directrices sobre el tratamiento ambula- torio de la población infantil con neumonía bacteriana fue bajo, en tanto que resultó superior en el caso de la neumonía viral. Se necesitan más estudios cualitativos para indagar sobre los motivos de esta falta de adher- encia y las razones por las cuales la neumonía bacteriana fue la etiología notificada con mayor frecuencia.

[RESUMO]. Objetivos. Determinar o nível de adesão às diretrizes clínicas para prescrição de amoxicilina em regime ambulatorial para crianças menores de 5 anos com pneumonia na Colômbia, de 2017 a 2019, e avaliar os fatores associados à adesão. Métodos. Estudo transversal de dados secundários do banco de dados do Sistema Integrado de Informação sobre Proteção Social da Colômbia. Definiu-se adesão como prescrição de amoxicilina oral para pneumonia bacteriana e não especificada, e não prescrição para pneumonia viral. As variáveis examinadas incluíram: idade da criança (< 1 ano, 1–4 anos), sexo, etiologia da pneumonia (bacteriana, viral, não especificada), região (Andina, Amazônica, Pacífica, Caribenha, Insular, Orinoco) e mecanismo de pagamento (sem autor- ização prévia, capitação, pagamento direto, pay-per-case, pay-for-event). Resultados. Dos 215.925 casos de pneumonia adquirida na comunidade notificados nos anos 2017-2019, 64,8% ocorreram na região Andina, 73,9% foram pneumonia bacteriana e 1,8% foram pneumonia viral. A adesão às diretrizes foi observada em 5,8% dos casos. Foi maior para crianças com diagnóstico de pneu- monia viral (86,0%) em comparação com pneumonia bacteriana (2,0%). Para as crianças com diagnóstico de pneumonia bacteriana, 9,4% receberam algum antibiótico. Uma proporção maior de crianças cobertas por pagamentos capitados (22,3%) recebeu tratamento compatível com as diretrizes, contra apenas 1,3% no esquema de pay-for-event. Conclusão. Neste primeiro estudo da Colômbia, a adesão às diretrizes para tratamento ambulatorial de cri- anças com pneumonia bacteriana foi baixa, sendo melhor para pneumonia viral. Mais estudos qualitativos são necessários para explorar as razões dessa falta de adesão e por qual motivo a pneumonia bacteriana foi a etiologia mais comumente notificada.

Antibiotic resistance and consumption before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Valle del Cauca, Colombia

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. To assess changes in antibiotic resistance of eight of the World Health Organization priority bug-drug combinations and consumption of six antibiotics (ceftriaxone, cefepime, piperacillin/tazobactam, meropenem, ciprofloxacin, vancomycin) before (March 2018 to July 2019) and during (March 2020 to July 2021) the COVID-19 pandemic in 31 hospitals in Valle del Cauca, Colombia. Methods. This was a before/after study using routinely collected data. For antibiotic consumption, daily defined doses (DDD) per 100 bed-days were compared. Results. There were 23 405 priority bacterial isolates with data on antibiotic resistance. The total number of isolates increased from 9 774 to 13 631 in the periods before and during the pandemic, respectively. While resistance significantly decreased for four selected bug-drug combinations (Klebsiella pneumoniae, extended spectrum beta lactamase [ESBL]-producing, 32% to 24%; K. pneumoniae, carbapenem-resistant, 4% to 2%; Pseudomonas aeruginosa, carbapenem-resistant, 12% to 8%; Acinetobacter baumannii, carbapenem-resis- tant, 23% to 9%), the level of resistance for Enterococcus faecium to vancomycin significantly increased (42% to 57%). There was no change in resistance for the remaining three combinations (Staphylococcus aureus, methicillin-resistant; Escherichia coli, ESBL-producing; E. coli, carbapenem-resistant). Consumption of all anti- biotics increased. However, meropenem consumption decreased in intensive care unit settings (8.2 to 7.1 DDD per 100 bed-days). Conclusions. While the consumption of antibiotics increased, a decrease in antibiotic resistance of four bug-drug combinations was observed during the pandemic. This was possibly due to an increase in commu- nity-acquired infections. Increasing resistance of E. faecium to vancomycin must be monitored. The findings of this study are essential to inform stewardship programs in hospital settings of Colombia and similar contexts elsewhere.

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. Evaluar los cambios en la resistencia a los antibióticos de ocho de las combinaciones de fármacos y agentes patógenos incluidos en la lista prioritaria de la Organización Mundial de la Salud y el consumo de seis antibióticos (ceftriaxona, cefepima, piperacilina/tazobactam, meropenem, ciprofloxacina, vancomicina) antes de la pandemia de COVID-19 (de marzo del 2018 a julio del 2019) y durante la pandemia (de marzo del 2020 a julio del 2021) en 31 hospitales del Valle del Cauca (Colombia). Métodos. En este estudio se analiza el antes y el después empleando datos recopilados de forma rutinaria. Para el consumo de antibióticos, se compararon las dosis diarias definidas (DDD) por 100 días-cama. Resultados. Hubo 23 405 cepas bacterianas aisladas prioritarias con datos sobre la resistencia a los antibióti- cos. El número total de cepas aisladas aumentó de 9 774 antes de la pandemia a 13 631 durante la pandemia. Si bien la resistencia disminuyó significativamente en las cuatro combinaciones seleccionadas de agentes patógenos y fármacos (Klebsiella pneumoniae, productora de betalactamasa de espectro extendido [BLEE], de 32% a 24%; K. pneumoniae, resistente a los carbapenémicos, de 4% a 2%; Pseudomonas aeruginosa, resistente a los carbapenémicos, de 12% a 8%; Acinetobacter baumannii, resistente a los carbapenémicos, de 23% a 9%), el nivel de resistencia de Enterococcus faecium a la vancomicina aumentó significativamente (de 42% a 57%). No hubo cambios en la resistencia en las tres combinaciones restantes (Staphylococcus aureus, resistente a la meticilina; Escherichia coli, productora de BLEE; E. coli, resistente a los carbapenémi- cos). El consumo de todos los antibióticos aumentó. Sin embargo, el consumo de meropenem disminuyó en los entornos de las unidades de cuidados intensivos (de 8,2 a 7,1 DDD por 100 días-cama). Conclusiones. Aunque el consumo de antibióticos aumentó, se observó una disminución en la resistencia a los antibióticos de cuatro combinaciones de agentes patógenos y medicamentos durante la pandemia, que posiblemente se debió a un aumento en las infecciones adquiridas en la comunidad. Es necesario vigilar el aumento de la resistencia de E. faecium a la vancomicina. Los resultados de este estudio son esenciales para que sirvan de orientación en los programas de optimización del uso de los antibióticos en los entornos hospitalarios de Colombia y en contextos similares en otros lugares.

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. Avaliar as mudanças na resistência a antibióticos em oito das combinações microrganismo/anti- microbiano prioritárias da Organização Mundial da Saúde e o consumo de seis antibióticos (ceftriaxona, cefepima, piperacilina/tazobactam, meropeném, ciprofloxacino, vancomicina) antes (março de 2018 a julho de 2019) e durante (março de 2020 a julho de 2021) a pandemia de COVID-19 em 31 hospitais em Valle del Cauca, Colômbia. Métodos. Este foi um estudo antes/depois utilizando dados coletados rotineiramente. Para avaliar o consumo de antibióticos, foram comparadas doses diárias definidas (DDD) por 100 leitos-dias. Resultados. Havia dados sobre resistência a antibióticos para 23.405 isolados bacterianos prioritários. O número total de isolados aumentou de 9.774 para 13.631 antes e durante a pandemia, respectivamente. Embora a resistência tenha diminuído significativamente para quatro das combinações microrganismo/antimi- crobiano selecionadas (Klebsiella pneumoniae, produtora de betalactamase de espectro estendido [ESBL], 32% a 24%; K. pneumoniae, resistente a carbapenêmicos, 4% a 2%; Pseudomonas aeruginosa, resistente a carbapenêmicos, 12% a 8%; Acinetobacter baumannii, resistente a carbapenêmicos, 23% a 9%), o nível de resistência de Enterococcus faecium a vancomicina aumentou significativamente (42% a 57%). Não houve mudança na resistência para as três combinações restantes (Staphylococcus aureus, resistente a meticilina; Escherichia coli, produtora de ESBL; E. coli, resistente a carbapenêmicos). O consumo de todos os antibióti- cos aumentou. Entretanto, o consumo de meropeném nas unidades de terapia intensiva diminuiu (de 8,2 para 7,1 DDD por 100 leitos-dias). Conclusões. Embora o consumo de antibióticos tenha aumentado, observou-se uma diminuição na resistên- cia a antibióticos de quatro combinações microrganismo/antimicrobiano durante a pandemia. Isso ocorreu possivelmente devido a um aumento nas infecções adquiridas na comunidade. O aumento da resistência de E. faecium à vancomicina deve ser monitorado. Os achados deste estudo são essenciais para guiar os pro- gramas de gerenciamento de antimicrobianos em ambientes hospitalares da Colômbia e em outros contextos similares.

Effectiveness of mRNA boosters after homologous primary series with BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 against symptomatic infection and severe COVID-19 in Brazil and Scotland: A test-negative design case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Brazil and Scotland have used mRNA boosters in their respective populations since September 2021, with Omicron's emergence accelerating their booster program. Despite this, both countries have reported substantial recent increases in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. The duration of the protection conferred by the booster dose against symptomatic Omicron cases and severe outcomes is unclear. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using a test-negative design, we analyzed national databases to estimate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of a primary series (with ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2) plus an mRNA vaccine booster (with BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273) against symptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and severe COVID-19 outcomes (hospitalization or death) during the period of Omicron dominance in Brazil and Scotland compared to unvaccinated individuals. Additional analyses included stratification by age group (18 to 49, 50 to 64, ≥65). All individuals aged 18 years or older who reported acute respiratory illness symptoms and tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection between January 1, 2022, and April 23, 2022, in Brazil and Scotland were eligible for the study. At 14 to 29 days after the mRNA booster, the VE against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection of ChAdOx1 plus BNT162b2 booster was 51.6%, (95% confidence interval (CI): [51.0, 52.2], p < 0.001) in Brazil and 67.1% (95% CI [65.5, 68.5], p < 0.001) in Scotland. At ≥4 months, protection against symptomatic infection waned to 4.2% (95% CI [0.7, 7.6], p = 0.02) in Brazil and 37.4% (95% CI [33.8, 40.9], p < 0.001) in Scotland. VE against severe outcomes in Brazil was 93.5% (95% CI [93.0, 94.0], p < 0.001) at 14 to 29 days post-booster, decreasing to 82.3% (95% CI [79.7, 84.7], p < 0.001) and 98.3% (95% CI [87.3, 99.8], p < 0.001) to 77.8% (95% CI [51.4, 89.9], p < 0.001) in Scotland for the same periods. Similar results were obtained with the primary series of BNT162b2 plus homologous booster. Potential limitations of this study were that we assumed that all cases included in the analysis were due to the Omicron variant based on the period of dominance and the limited follow-up time since the booster dose. CONCLUSIONS: We observed that mRNA boosters after a primary vaccination course with either mRNA or viral-vector vaccines provided modest, short-lived protection against symptomatic infection with Omicron but substantial and more sustained protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes for at least 3 months.

Antibiotic resistance and consumption before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Valle del Cauca, Colombia / Resistencia antibiótica y consumo de antibióticos antes y durante la pandemia de COVID-19 en el Valle del Cauca, Colombia / Resistência a antibióticos e consumo de antibióticos antes e durante a pandemia de COVID-19 no Valle del Cauca, Colômbia

ABSTRACT Objective. To assess changes in antibiotic resistance of eight of the World Health Organization priority bug-drug combinations and consumption of six antibiotics (ceftriaxone, cefepime, piperacillin/tazobactam, meropenem, ciprofloxacin, vancomycin) before (March 2018 to July 2019) and during (March 2020 to July 2021) the COVID-19 pandemic in 31 hospitals in Valle del Cauca, Colombia. Methods. This was a before/after study using routinely collected data. For antibiotic consumption, daily defined doses (DDD) per 100 bed-days were compared. Results. There were 23 405 priority bacterial isolates with data on antibiotic resistance. The total number of isolates increased from 9 774 to 13 631 in the periods before and during the pandemic, respectively. While resistance significantly decreased for four selected bug-drug combinations (Klebsiella pneumoniae, extended spectrum beta lactamase [ESBL]-producing, 32% to 24%; K. pneumoniae, carbapenem-resistant, 4% to 2%; Pseudomonas aeruginosa, carbapenem-resistant, 12% to 8%; Acinetobacter baumannii, carbapenem-resistant, 23% to 9%), the level of resistance for Enterococcus faecium to vancomycin significantly increased (42% to 57%). There was no change in resistance for the remaining three combinations (Staphylococcus aureus, methicillin-resistant; Escherichia coli, ESBL-producing; E. coli, carbapenem-resistant). Consumption of all antibiotics increased. However, meropenem consumption decreased in intensive care unit settings (8.2 to 7.1 DDD per 100 bed-days). Conclusions. While the consumption of antibiotics increased, a decrease in antibiotic resistance of four bug-drug combinations was observed during the pandemic. This was possibly due to an increase in community-acquired infections. Increasing resistance of E. faecium to vancomycin must be monitored. The findings of this study are essential to inform stewardship programs in hospital settings of Colombia and similar contexts elsewhere.

RESUMEN Objetivo. Evaluar los cambios en la resistencia a los antibióticos de ocho de las combinaciones de fármacos y agentes patógenos incluidos en la lista prioritaria de la Organización Mundial de la Salud y el consumo de seis antibióticos (ceftriaxona, cefepima, piperacilina/tazobactam, meropenem, ciprofloxacina, vancomicina) antes de la pandemia de COVID-19 (de marzo del 2018 a julio del 2019) y durante la pandemia (de marzo del 2020 a julio del 2021) en 31 hospitales del Valle del Cauca (Colombia). Métodos. En este estudio se analiza el antes y el después empleando datos recopilados de forma rutinaria. Para el consumo de antibióticos, se compararon las dosis diarias definidas (DDD) por 100 días-cama. Resultados. Hubo 23 405 cepas bacterianas aisladas prioritarias con datos sobre la resistencia a los antibióticos. El número total de cepas aisladas aumentó de 9 774 antes de la pandemia a 13 631 durante la pandemia. Si bien la resistencia disminuyó significativamente en las cuatro combinaciones seleccionadas de agentes patógenos y fármacos (Klebsiella pneumoniae, productora de betalactamasa de espectro extendido [BLEE], de 32% a 24%; K. pneumoniae, resistente a los carbapenémicos, de 4% a 2%; Pseudomonas aeruginosa, resistente a los carbapenémicos, de 12% a 8%; Acinetobacter baumannii, resistente a los carbapenémicos, de 23% a 9%), el nivel de resistencia de Enterococcus faecium a la vancomicina aumentó significativamente (de 42% a 57%). No hubo cambios en la resistencia en las tres combinaciones restantes (Staphylococcus aureus, resistente a la meticilina; Escherichia coli, productora de BLEE; E. coli, resistente a los carbapenémicos). El consumo de todos los antibióticos aumentó. Sin embargo, el consumo de meropenem disminuyó en los entornos de las unidades de cuidados intensivos (de 8,2 a 7,1 DDD por 100 días-cama). Conclusiones. Aunque el consumo de antibióticos aumentó, se observó una disminución en la resistencia a los antibióticos de cuatro combinaciones de agentes patógenos y medicamentos durante la pandemia, que posiblemente se debió a un aumento en las infecciones adquiridas en la comunidad. Es necesario vigilar el aumento de la resistencia de E. faecium a la vancomicina. Los resultados de este estudio son esenciales para que sirvan de orientación en los programas de optimización del uso de los antibióticos en los entornos hospitalarios de Colombia y en contextos similares en otros lugares.

RESUMO Objetivo. Avaliar as mudanças na resistência a antibióticos em oito das combinações microrganismo/antimicrobiano prioritárias da Organização Mundial da Saúde e o consumo de seis antibióticos (ceftriaxona, cefepima, piperacilina/tazobactam, meropeném, ciprofloxacino, vancomicina) antes (março de 2018 a julho de 2019) e durante (março de 2020 a julho de 2021) a pandemia de COVID-19 em 31 hospitais em Valle del Cauca, Colômbia. Métodos. Este foi um estudo antes/depois utilizando dados coletados rotineiramente. Para avaliar o consumo de antibióticos, foram comparadas doses diárias definidas (DDD) por 100 leitos-dias. Resultados. Havia dados sobre resistência a antibióticos para 23.405 isolados bacterianos prioritários. O número total de isolados aumentou de 9.774 para 13.631 antes e durante a pandemia, respectivamente. Embora a resistência tenha diminuído significativamente para quatro das combinações microrganismo/antimicrobiano selecionadas (Klebsiella pneumoniae, produtora de betalactamase de espectro estendido [ESBL], 32% a 24%; K. pneumoniae, resistente a carbapenêmicos, 4% a 2%; Pseudomonas aeruginosa, resistente a carbapenêmicos, 12% a 8%; Acinetobacter baumannii, resistente a carbapenêmicos, 23% a 9%), o nível de resistência de Enterococcus faecium a vancomicina aumentou significativamente (42% a 57%). Não houve mudança na resistência para as três combinações restantes (Staphylococcus aureus, resistente a meticilina; Escherichia coli, produtora de ESBL; E. coli, resistente a carbapenêmicos). O consumo de todos os antibióticos aumentou. Entretanto, o consumo de meropeném nas unidades de terapia intensiva diminuiu (de 8,2 para 7,1 DDD por 100 leitos-dias). Conclusões. Embora o consumo de antibióticos tenha aumentado, observou-se uma diminuição na resistência a antibióticos de quatro combinações microrganismo/antimicrobiano durante a pandemia. Isso ocorreu possivelmente devido a um aumento nas infecções adquiridas na comunidade. O aumento da resistência de E. faecium à vancomicina deve ser monitorado. Os achados deste estudo são essenciais para guiar os programas de gerenciamento de antimicrobianos em ambientes hospitalares da Colômbia e em outros contextos similares.

Adherence to guidelines on the use of amoxicillin for treatment of ambulatory pneumonia in children younger than 5 years, Colombia, 2017-2019 / Adherencia a las directrices sobre el uso de amoxicilina para el tratamiento ambulatorio de la neumonía en menores de 5 años, Colombia, 2017-2019 / Adesão às diretrizes sobre uso de amoxicilina para tratamento de pneumonia ambulatorial em crianças menores de 5 anos, Colômbia, 2017-2019

ABSTRACT Objectives. To determine the level of adherence to clinical guidelines in prescribing amoxicillin to children younger than 5 years with pneumonia in outpatient settings in Colombia from 2017 to 2019, and assess the factors associated with adherence Methods. This was a cross-sectional study of secondary data from the Colombian Integrated Social Protection Information System database. Adherence was defined as prescription of oral amoxicillin for bacterial and unspecified pneumonia and non-prescription for viral pneumonia. Variables examined included: age (< 1 year, 1-4 years) of child; sex; cause of pneumonia (bacterial, viral, unspecified); region (Andean, Amazonian, Pacific, Caribbean, Insular, Orinoquian); and payment mechanism (without prior authorization, capitation, direct payment, pay per case, pay for event). Results. Of 215 925 cases of community-acquired pneumonia reported during 2017-2019, 64.8% were from the Andean region, 73.9% were bacterial pneumonia and 1.8% were viral pneumonia. Adherence to guidelines was observed in 5.8% of cases: this was highest for children diagnosed with viral (86.0%) compared with bacterial (2.0%) pneumonia. For children diagnosed with bacterial pneumonia, 9.4% were prescribed any antibiotic. A greater proportion of children covered by capitated payments (22.3%) were given treatment consistent with the guidelines compared with payment for event (1.3%). Conclusion. In this first study from Colombia, adherence to guidelines for outpatient treatment of children with bacterial pneumonia was low and was better for viral pneumonia. Further qualitative studies are needed to explore the reasons for this lack of adherence and why bacterial pneumonia was the most commonly reported etiology.

RESUMEN Objetivos. Determinar el nivel de adherencia a las directrices clínicas al momento de prescribir amoxicilina a menores de 5 años con neumonía en entornos de atención ambulatoria en Colombia entre el 2017 y el 2019, así como evaluar los factores asociados con la adherencia. Métodos. Este fue un estudio transversal de datos secundarios de la base de datos del Sistema Integral de Información de la Protección Social de Colombia. La adherencia se definió como la prescripción de amoxicilina por vía oral para las neumonías bacterianas y no especificadas, y la ausencia de prescripción para las neumonías virales. Las variables examinadas incluyeron: edad (< 1 año, 1 a 4 años); sexo; causa de la neumonía (bacteriana, viral, no especificada); región (andina, amazónica, Pacífico, Caribe, insular, Orinoco); y mecanismo de pago (sin autorización previa, capitación, pago directo, pago por caso, pago por evento). Resultados. De 215 925 casos de neumonía adquirida en la comunidad notificados durante el período 2017-2019, el 64,8% correspondieron a la región andina, el 73,9% a neumonía bacteriana y el 1,8% a neumonía viral. Se observó la adherencia a las directrices en el 5,8% de los casos: esta cifra fue más alta para la población infantil diagnosticada con neumonía viral (86,0%) que para la diagnosticada con neumonía bacteriana (2,0%). En el caso de la población infantil diagnosticada con neumonía bacteriana, al 9,4% se le recetó algún antibiótico. La proporción de población infantil cubierta por pagos capitados (22,3%) que recibió un tratamiento en consonancia con las directrices fue mayor que la de la población cubierta por pagos por evento (1,3%). Conclusión. En este primer estudio de Colombia, la adherencia a las directrices sobre el tratamiento ambulatorio de la población infantil con neumonía bacteriana fue bajo, en tanto que resultó superior en el caso de la neumonía viral. Se necesitan más estudios cualitativos para indagar sobre los motivos de esta falta de adherencia y las razones por las cuales la neumonía bacteriana fue la etiología notificada con mayor frecuencia.

RESUMO Objetivos. Determinar o nível de adesão às diretrizes clínicas para prescrição de amoxicilina em regime ambulatorial para crianças menores de 5 anos com pneumonia na Colômbia, de 2017 a 2019, e avaliar os fatores associados à adesão. Métodos. Estudo transversal de dados secundários do banco de dados do Sistema Integrado de Informação sobre Proteção Social da Colômbia. Definiu-se adesão como prescrição de amoxicilina oral para pneumonia bacteriana e não especificada, e não prescrição para pneumonia viral. As variáveis examinadas incluíram: idade da criança (< 1 ano, 1-4 anos), sexo, etiologia da pneumonia (bacteriana, viral, não especificada), região (Andina, Amazônica, Pacífica, Caribenha, Insular, Orinoco) e mecanismo de pagamento (sem autorização prévia, capitação, pagamento direto, pay-per-case, pay-for-event). Resultados. Dos 215.925 casos de pneumonia adquirida na comunidade notificados nos anos 2017-2019, 64,8% ocorreram na região Andina, 73,9% foram pneumonia bacteriana e 1,8% foram pneumonia viral. A adesão às diretrizes foi observada em 5,8% dos casos. Foi maior para crianças com diagnóstico de pneumonia viral (86,0%) em comparação com pneumonia bacteriana (2,0%). Para as crianças com diagnóstico de pneumonia bacteriana, 9,4% receberam algum antibiótico. Uma proporção maior de crianças cobertas por pagamentos capitados (22,3%) recebeu tratamento compatível com as diretrizes, contra apenas 1,3% no esquema de pay-for-event. Conclusão. Neste primeiro estudo da Colômbia, a adesão às diretrizes para tratamento ambulatorial de crianças com pneumonia bacteriana foi baixa, sendo melhor para pneumonia viral. Mais estudos qualitativos são necessários para explorar as razões dessa falta de adesão e por qual motivo a pneumonia bacteriana foi a etiologia mais comumente notificada.

Elderly Mortality due to Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions and Primary Health Care Coverage in the Federal District / Mortalidad de ancianos por causas sensibles y cobertura de Atención Primaria en Distrito Federal / Mortalidade de idosos por causas sensíveis e cobertura de Atenção Primária no Distrito Federal

ABSTRACT Objectives: To describe the mortality coefficients of elderly due to primary care sensitive conditions, from 2008 to 2018, and determine its association with the coverage of the Primary Health Care (Family Health Strategy and Basic Care models) in the Federal District. Methods: Ecological time series of mortality in Federal District elderly, from 2008 to 2018. The Poisson regression model was applied, considering as significant those with p<0.05, with a CI of 95%. Results: There were 70,503 deaths. There was a decrease in the risk of death of elders due to cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Higher primary care coverage decreased the chance of death by sensitive conditions, both in Basic Care (OR: 0.994, CI: 0.990-0.998) and in the Family Health Strategy (OR: 0.997, CI: 0.995-0.999). Conclusions: Primary Care coverage was associated with a lower chance of death of the elderly due to Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions, especially in Basic Care.

RESUMEN Objetivo: Describir coeficientes de mortalidad entre ancianos por condiciones sensibles, de 2008 a 2018, y verificar relación con la cobertura de Atención Primaria de Salud (Modelo Estrategia Salud de la Familia y Atención Básica) en Distrito Federal. Métodos: Estudio ecológico tipo serie temporal de mortalidad de ancianos en Distrito Federal, entre 2008 y 2018. Para análisis de las relaciones, aplicado modelo de regresión Poisson, siendo consideradas significantes las que presentaron p<0,05, con IC de 95%. Resultados: Hubo70.503 óbitos. Observado disminución del riesgo de morir de ancianos por enfermedad cardiovasculares y diabetes. La cobertura de Atención Primaria disminuyó la probabilidad de morir por condiciones sensibles tanto en Atención Básica (OR: 0,994, IC: 0,990-0,998) mientras en Estrategia Salud de la Familia (OR: 0,997, IC: 0,995-0,999). Conclusiones: La cobertura de Atención Primaria fue relacionada la menor probabilidad de morir de ancianos por condiciones sensibles a la Atención Primaria, sobretodo en Atención Básica.

RESUMO Objetivos: Descrever os coeficientes de mortalidade entre idosos por condições sensíveis, de 2008 a 2018, e verificar a associação com a cobertura da Atenção Primária à Saúde (Modelo Estratégia Saúde da Família e Atenção Básica) no Distrito Federal. Métodos: Estudo ecológico tipo série temporal da mortalidade dos idosos no Distrito Federal, entre 2008 e 2018. Para análise das associações, aplicou se o modelo de regressão Poisson, sendo consideradas significantes as que apresentaram p<0,05, com IC de 95%. Resultados: Houve70.503 óbitos. Observou-se diminuição do risco de morrer dos idosos por doenças cardiovasculares e diabetes. A cobertura da Atenção Primária diminuiu a chance de morrer por condições sensíveis tanto na Atenção Básica (OR: 0,994, IC: 0,990-0,998) quanto na Estratégia Saúde da Família (OR: 0,997, IC: 0,995-0,999). Conclusões: A cobertura de Atenção Primária foi associada a menor chance de morrer dos idosos por condições sensíveis à Atenção Primária, sobretudo na Atenção Básica.

Covid-19: temporal evolution and immunization in the three epidemiological waves, Brazil, 2020-2022.

OBJECTIVE: Describe the temporal evolution of morbimortality due to Covid-19 and vaccination coverage during the health emergency in Brazil. METHODS: Number of cases and deaths due to Covid-19 were extracted from the public panel of the Brazilian Ministry of Health, according to epidemiological week (EW) and geographic region. Data on vaccines and variants were obtained, respectively, from the Information System of the National Immunization Program and the Genomic Surveillance System of SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: Three peaks of deaths characterized the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic: in EW 30 of 2020, in the EW 14 of 2021 and in the EW six of 2022; three case waves, starting in the North and Northeast regions, with higher rates in the third wave, mainly in the South region. Vaccination started in the epidemiological week three of 2021, rapidly reaching most of the population, particularly in the Southeast and South regions, coinciding with a reduction exclusively in the mortality rate in the third wave. Only from the beginning of the second wave, when Gama was the dominant variant, 146,718 genomes were sequenced. From the last EW of 2021, with vaccination coverage already approaching 70%, the Omicron variant caused an avalanche of cases, but with fewer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: We noticed the presence of three waves of Covid-19, as well as the effect of immunization on the reduction of mortality in the second and third waves, attributed to the Delta and Omicron variants, respectively. However, the reduction of morbidity, which peaked in the third wave during the domination of the Omicron variant, remained the same. The national and centralized command of the pandemic confrontation did not occur; thus, public administrators took the lead in their territories. The overwhelming effect of the pandemic could have been minimized, if there had been a coordinated participation of three spheres of the Brazilian Unified Health System administration, in the joint governance of the pandemic fight.

[Social vulnerability, survival, and hospital lethality by COVID-19 in patients aged 50 years and over: retrospective cohort of cases in Brazil in 2020 and 2021]. / Vulnerabilidade social, sobrevida e letalidade hospitalar pela COVID-19 em pacientes com 50 anos ou mais: coorte retrospectiva de casos no Brasil em 2020 e 2021.

The outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection is not only associated with age and comorbidities but is also aggravated by social vulnerability. This study aims to analyze - according to social vulnerability - survival and hospital lethality by COVID-19 in the first 100 days from symptoms to death in individuals aged 50 years or older hospitalized in Brazil. This is a retrospective cohort from Epidemiological Week 11 of 2020 to week 33 of 2021. The Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System (SIVEP-Gripe) provided clinical and epidemiological data. The Geographic Index of the Socioeconomic Context for Health and Social Studies (GeoSES) measured social vulnerability. The Kaplan-Meier curve and the adjusted proportional risk model by Cox were used for survival, with hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Among the 410,504 cases, overall lethality was of 42.2% in general and 51.4% in the most vulnerable. We found a higher lethality according to worse socioeconomic status in all categories by age group; the double is registered for 50-59 years. The adjusted Cox model showed a 32% increase in risk of death (HR = 1.32; 95%CI: 1.24-1.42). Moreover, men, older adults, black or indigenous adults, with multiple comorbidities, and subjected to invasive ventilation, have a higher risk of death after hospitalization. Intersectoral policy measures need to be targeted to alleviate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic aggravated by social vulnerability.

O desfecho da infecção pelo SARS-CoV-2 não se associa apenas à idade e a comorbidades, mas também agrava-se por vulnerabilidade social. Este estudo tem como objetivo analisar, segundo vulnerabilidade social, a sobrevida e a letalidade hospitalar por COVID-19 para os primeiros 100 dias entre sintomas até o óbito em indivíduos de 50 anos ou mais hospitalizados no Brasil. Trata-se de uma coorte retrospectiva das Semanas Epidemiológicas 11, de 2020, a 33, de 2021. O Sistema de Informação de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe (SIVEP-Gripe) forneceu dados clínico-epidemiológicos. O Índice Socioeconômico do Contexto Geográfico para Estudos em Saúde (GeoSES) mensurou vulnerabilidade social. Para sobrevida, utilizou-se a curva de Kaplan-Meier e o modelo ajustado de riscos proporcionais de Cox, com hazard ratio (HR) e intervalos de 95% de confiança (IC95%). Dentre os 410.504 casos, a letalidade geral foi de 42,2%, sendo 51,4% os indivíduos mais vulneráveis. Por faixa etária, registra-se a presença de maior letalidade para os piores status socioeconômicos em todas as categorias; para 50-59 anos, registra-se o dobro. O modelo ajustado de Cox mostrou aumento de 32% de risco para óbito (HR = 1,32; IC95%: 1,24-1,42). Ademais, homens, idosos, pretos ou indígenas, com múltiplas comorbidades e submetidos à ventilação invasiva apresentam maior risco de óbito após hospitalização. É necessário que medidas políticas intersetoriais sejam direcionadas para mitigar os efeitos da pandemia de COVID-19 agravados pela vulnerabilidade social.

El pronóstico de la infección por SARS-CoV-2 no sólo está asociado a la edad y a las comorbilidades, sino que también empeora por la vulnerabilidad social. El presente estudio tiene como objetivo analizar, según la vulnerabilidad social, la supervivencia y la letalidad hospitalaria por COVID-19 durante los primeros 100 días entre los síntomas hasta la muerte en individuos de 50 años o más hospitalizados en Brasil. Se trata de una cohorte retrospectiva desde la Semana Epidemiológica 11 de 2020 hasta la 33 de 2021. El Sistema de Información de Vigilancia Epidemiológica de la Gripe (SIVEP-Gripe) proporcionó datos clínico-epidemiológicos. El Índice Socioeconómico del Contexto Geográfico para los Estudios de Salud (GeoSES) midió la vulnerabilidad social. Para la supervivencia se utilizó la curva de Kaplan-Meier y el modelo ajustado de riesgos proporcionales de Cox, con cociente de riesgos (hazard ratio - HR) e intervalos del 95% de confianza (IC95%). Entre los 410.504 casos la letalidad global fue del 42,2%; el 51,4% en los más vulnerables. Por grupos de edad, se registra la presencia de una mayor letalidad a medida que empeora el estatus socioeconómico en todas las categorías; para 50-59 años es el doble. El modelo de Cox ajustado mostró un aumento del 32% en el riesgo de muerte (HR = 1,32; IC95%: 1,24-1,42). Además, los hombres de edad avanzada, de raza negra o indígena, con múltiples comorbilidades y sometidos a ventilación invasiva tienen un mayor riesgo de muerte tras la hospitalización. Es necesario que las medidas políticas intersectoriales se dirijan a mitigar los efectos de la pandemia de COVID-19 agravada por la vulnerabilidad social.

Elderly Mortality due to Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions and Primary Health Care Coverage in the Federal District.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the mortality coefficients of elderly due to primary care sensitive conditions, from 2008 to 2018, and determine its association with the coverage of the Primary Health Care (Family Health Strategy and Basic Care models) in the Federal District. METHODS: Ecological time series of mortality in Federal District elderly, from 2008 to 2018. The Poisson regression model was applied, considering as significant those with p<0.05, with a CI of 95%. RESULTS: There were 70,503 deaths. There was a decrease in the risk of death of elders due to cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Higher primary care coverage decreased the chance of death by sensitive conditions, both in Basic Care (OR: 0.994, CI: 0.990-0.998) and in the Family Health Strategy (OR: 0.997, CI: 0.995-0.999). CONCLUSIONS: Primary Care coverage was associated with a lower chance of death of the elderly due to Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions, especially in Basic Care.